Top Three Surprises of 2015

    For the purposes of this post, a surprise is a good thing, where a player or team does better than expected. That being said, here are the top 3 surprises of 2015

3. Chicago Cubs 
    The Cubs have been stockpiling talent for the past five years, and in 2015, they finally put it together. The reason this pleasant surprise isn't higher on the list is that it isn't as much of a surprise that the Cubs were good, just that it happened as early as it did. Nobody expected Kris Bryant to be as good as he was, and no one expected Jake Arrieta to have an ERA under one in the second half. The fact that a team went from worst-to-third-best-in-baseball is surprising enough to make it onto this list, the rest is icing on the cake.

2. Bryce Harper
    People have known Bryce Harper was a star for a long time. However, nobody expected this. Harper led baseball in more than half of the offensive categories. He was unanimously voted MVP, and he carried a dead Nationals offense on his shoulders for the second half of the season. Without him, the Nationals would have had a record under .500. Last year, Mike Trout was the best player in baseball. Now it is Bryce Harper.

1. Houston Astros
    Think about this. Since 2012, the Astros haven't had a winning record. In 2015, they won the wild card. The mere fact that they managed to win more than 60 games is astonishing, but they didn't stop their. They clinched the playoffs, and managed to give the champs a run for their money. That was by far the biggest shock of the year. What do you think are some others?

Top 5 Biggest Let Downs of 2015

   For the purposes of this blog, a "let down" is a player or team that did not live up to expectations. It is not a heart braking loss in the playoffs. That being said, here are the top 5 biggest let downs of 2015. 

5. John Lester
   When the Cubs decided it was time to win now, they made a lot of big moves. Among those was the most hyped move of the entire winter, the signing of ace John Lester. However, Lester struggled early on, wound up getting out shined by fellow ace, Cy Young Jake Arrieta. All in all, Lester had a pretty good year, helping the Cubs make it to the postseason for the first time since 2009. Still, Lester did not perform to standards, and was a let down.

4. Seattle Mariners
   Take the best lefty-righty 3-4 punch on paper in the game and cross it with a former Cy Young award winner and what do you get? A championship bid, right? RIGHT? Nope, you get one of the bigger let downs of 2015. Robinson Cano was just as abismal as the rest of the Mariners line up, and the bullpen had one of the higher ERA's of the Major Leagues. For a team that was supposed to go to the World Series, finishing in fourth behind a team that was last in baseball for the past four years is a major let down. Thus, the spot on this list.

3. Hanley Ramirez & Pablo Sandoval
   While the Red Sox were never going to win the East with their pitching, their two major offensive signings, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, were supposed to at least somewhat offset the odds. However, Ramirez proved upon entry that it would be unwise to leave him in the field, playing simply terrible defense, and not making up for it with his average hitting. While the other Red Sox signing, Pablo Sandoval, was the opposite. He played average defense, but hit terribly. So bad was Sandoval's hitting that he gave up switch hitting in favor of hitting lefty all of the time. The two guys that were supposed to carry the Sox let them down.

2. San Diego Padres 
   For a team that "won the winter," the Padres must be really disappointed in themselves. They traded for aging former stars that couldn't play defense, screwing up their team in the present and the future. Matt Kemp didn't hit for the first half of the season, and all throughout didn't play defense. Justin Upton was also mediocre, and ace James Shields rode an ERA over four to the end of the year. Will Myers, who was supposed to be center field, proved he couldn't handle it, and was moved to first base. You know you let your fan base down when you were supposed to go to the  World Series and you finish behind the Arizona Diamondbacks.

1. Washington Nationals
   Another team that was supposed to go to the World Series, yet the only thing that worked out for the Nationals was Bryce Harper's surge to star hood. Max Scherzer, the Nats' beg signing, was average, with a bad second half. Jason Werth and Denard Span both got injured, leaving only one man to tend to the Nats' dying offense. Two of the Nationals pitcher' were terrible, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister, both of whom were former Cy Young candidates. All in all, no one except for Bryce Harper performed to standard, and the Nationals let down everyone. 

The Top Three Worst Moves of the Offseason

3.  Giants sign Jonny Cueto to six years, with an opt out after two
    While the Dodgers made a similar deal with Kenta Maeda , a deal with a lot of years for someone you know is going to get hurt, that one was for not nearly as much money. This deal is bad because if Cueto injures himself, which he probably will, the Giants are stuck paying a guy around 20 million a year to sit on the bench. It's a hell of a risk for the Giants, especially if they want to contend in the suddenly competitive NL west. That being said, it's only really two years, as they signed him expecting that he would opt out, which is why it's not #1, but it's still way to risky, and it could set the Giants back a long way in two or three years.

2. Diamondbacks sign Zack Greinke to six years, 205 million
   To the casual fan, letting go of Zack Greinke seemed stupid. The guy almost won the Cy Young! But when you look closer at what the Diamondbacks payed to get Greinke, you can see why the Dodgers were reluctant. The Diamondbacks gave up so much money to a guy who is going to spend the majority of his contract over the age of 35, that if they don't win within the next two or three years, they're screwed. They're giving Greinke too much money. End of story. But they're also giving him way too many years. Six is a long time for a thirty two year old. The proportions of this deal are so out of whack that it was almost number one, but the stupidity of the following deal will leave you speechless.

#1 Diamondbacks trade Ender Enciarte and Dansby Swanson to the Braves for Shelby Miller
   Hey, these guys again! As you may not know, the Diamondbacks had the first pick in this year's player draft. They selected Dansby Swanson, only to trade away the ultimate potential of a shortstop for two or three years of a #2 starter. Let that sink in. On top of that, they're trading away fan favorite Ender Enciarte, who can play defense, hit, everything. Now Shelby Miller is great, but he gives up a lot of fly balls, which is not good for the D-Backs stadium. You'll only Miller for two years, when you could have Enciarte for more. Also, six years of the number one prospect of 2015 doesn't sound too bad either. Look, I understand that the D-Backs signed a TV contract so they need to win now, but it will severely, I mean cripple, their future.
 

The Most Overpayed Free Agent

 The winter is always exciting for true baseball fans. You get to watch rumors of your team talking to players and either sign them, or fall back to the next best thing. However, you can still sign the number one free agent on the market and fail. That's exactly what the Arizona Diamondbacks did, last Friday, when they picked up the top name of the 2015 off season, Zack Greinke. Greinke, among other things, (should've won the Cy Young) had a remarkable year, helping the Dodgers yet again win the National League West, and headed into this off season as the man to get. But can you spend too much on such a top-of-the-line-name? (Yes, the answer is yes)
 Another top of the line free agent pitcher that was signed within the past two weeks was David Price. Price is making 217 million over the next seven years, with an opt out clause after three years. Zack Greinke is making 206.5 million over the next six years, with 60 million of it being deferred. (payed over time once the contract is over) Another thing to consider is that Price is two years younger than Greinke, which means that Arizona will be paying 27 million a year when Greinke is 38! With pitching free agents, you generally are paying them for the first four years, then whatever you get after that is extra, but you can't rely on them to be a number one, much less the guy you're paying 27 million to to go toe to toe with the greatest young arms of the generation. Not only that, but Arizona is in a delicate position right now. They're so-so, having a couple of really good players, but not really having enough chemistry or pitching to make a serious run. Now they've shot themselves on the foot by picking up Greinke. Don't get me wrong, Greinke's probably among the top three pitchers in baseball, but with that team, you don't get big name stars, especially for that much. You make trades and conserve your money, to make a good team. But the DBacks are in a rough hole now, and they're going to have to think really smartly to dig their way out.

2016 Predictions

  2015 was an exciting year. There were some pretty extreme moments in it. The most memorable moment for me was Jose Bautista's bat flip in Game 5 of the ALDS, when he all but sent the Jays to the LCS with a three run home run. But things will be different in 2016. The various teams around baseball have seen the success of the Royals, and will try to mimic them. Gone will be the Steroid Era thinking of home runs must be hit to win. It would be about reducing strike outs, and putting the ball in play, hard. 

   Let's go division by division. In the NL west, the Dodgers are going to win. The Giants need to figure out their identity (their pitching) and the Padres just clumsily through together some sluggers. The Diamondbacks are set back by their one-man offense, and the Rockies can't win because of their stadium, which is so high it makes hitting impossible. 

    The NL Central will once again belong to the Cardinals, though the Pirates will fade, and the Cubs will at one point find themselves ahead. This is because The Cubs have better pitching than the Cards, and hitting. However, the Redbirds have way more experience, and they know how to win consistently. 

    The NL East will not be the Mets again. While they may have better pitching, they no longer have the offensive anchors of Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes. The Nationals don't have as good pitching, but it's solid enough to get by, and MVP Bryce Harper can anchor and offense as good as anybody. 

   The AL West will be within the Angels or the Astros. The Astros are a good young team who can deal with injury, and the Angels are anchored by the best player in baseball, Mike Trout. 

    The AL Central belongs to the dynasty of the Royals. They have their core players for at least two more years, and everyone else in that division sucks. The Tigers are in rebuilding mode, the White Sox are losing players to injury all of the time, and depend on Chris Sale. The Indians can't keep a lead, and the Twins are too old, so they can't deal with injuries. 

   The AL East is the most uncertain, as everyone in the division is bad. So I used the process of elimination. It won't be the Orioles, they're losing too many of their core players to free agency. The Yankees have the same problems as the Twins, they're too susceptible to injury. The Blue Jays no longer have their pitching anchor, David Price, to support their pitching, the Rays don't have any offense, and the Red Sox are a mess of injuries, reliance on home runs, and lack of starting pitching. However, I'm reasonably sure that if the Red Sox can grab a starter this winter, then they're in a good place to win the division. 

   

Curveball vs Slider

  Today I feel like talking about something other than Major League Baseball, because the season is over. So today, I'm going to talk about the two most common breaking pitches, the curveball and the slider.
  As a practitioner of the curve, I know that the grip is fairly simple. You place your index and middle fingers along the vertical seam, lean towards your middle finger, and throw the ball so your middle finger is on top of the ball. Most curveball experience slight lateral movement and heavy downward movement. For people who didn't understand that, imagine the ball starts at the two on a clock. It breaks heavily, winding up somewhere between seven and eight. Other variations have different movement, some go from the one position to the eight, others go from  the two to the eight, but the most famous variation, literally called the 12-6, moves only from the twelve position to the six, with no sideways movement what so ever. There are certainly more variations of the curveball, and some could argue that is breaks more, but this is mostly because of who use which pitch. Starting pitchers mainly use the curve, and they tend to have better mechanics than relievers.
  The slider started off as the slurve, a variation of the curveball that had only a little downward action. Since then, the casual fan has found it difficult to distinguish between the two. One way to know is to see how fast it moves. Sliders are typically five miles per hour slower than a pitcher's fastball, sitting around 87 miles per hour. A curve is ten miles per hour slower. Think back to the clock. A slider will typically start at the three position and finish at around 8:30. Sliders are mainly used by relieves, as the grip (curveball grip with the fingers on the side) puts more strain on the arm (relievers throw less pitches). But those lines aren't final, as possibly the best starter in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, uses both the slider and the curve.
  When it comes down to it, which pitches you should use really depends on your mechanics. If your short arm the ball, and come around your shoulder, then you can really get sharp action on your slider. If you come straight over the top, stay long through the zone, and stay within yourself, the you should throw a curve. Your arm angle would simply move your fingers to the top and you'd throw a curve anyway. But none of that matters. The best off speed pitch, if you get it right, is the change up. It puts the least amount of strain on your arm, has an easy grip to use (circle with your index finger and your thumb) looks like a fastball, and is slower than either of the breaking pitches. If you need more proof, look at Pedro Martinez. The Hall of Famer's out pitch was a change up, and he dominated the American League during the Steroid Era, which, needless to say, is difficult. So learn either three. As long as you have a strong fastball to pitch your off speed off of, you'll do fine.

The Outcome of the World Series

   So for you baseball fans who don't have your heads stuck in the sand, the World Series has started. The Royals are winning 3-1, and it's the Royals' Edison Volquez againts the Mets' Matt Harvey. The aces previously met in game one, which the Royals won in fourteen innings. So now the big question; who's going to win tonight? If the Royals win, then they win the series. If the Mets win, then the series goes back to Kansas City for game 6.
   The Royals will win. I'm calling it. The Mets pitchers, particularly Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, and tonight starter, Matt Harvey, are all primarily fastball pitchers. The Royals have proved all series that they can hit a fastball, with the way they're set up. The Royals are contact hitters, even Eric Hosmer, their cleanup hitter, is more of an RBI guy than a home run guy. They put the ball in play, and if last night's fiasco (Daniel Murphy error) has taught us anything, it's that if you put the ball in play, things will happen. This is why the Mets were able to breeze through the Cubs and the Dodgers. The Cubs primarily rely on their pitching, home runs, and doubles. Their unpredictable, once they get men on base. And the Dodgers need to wait for a home run. I love the Dodgers, but they're kind of messed up right now.
    Remember a couple of posts ago when I said the Blue Jays would win the World Series. Well, I didn't factor in the Mets. The Mets' pitching would be perfect for the Blue Jays, who are even worse about waiting for the dinger than the Dodgers.
   I can't see into the future, but I can guess that the Royals will win tonight. They are the best team in the American League, but nobody payed them any attention because they were so far ahead of the Central from the beginning. But they will win tonight.