2016 Predictions

  2015 was an exciting year. There were some pretty extreme moments in it. The most memorable moment for me was Jose Bautista's bat flip in Game 5 of the ALDS, when he all but sent the Jays to the LCS with a three run home run. But things will be different in 2016. The various teams around baseball have seen the success of the Royals, and will try to mimic them. Gone will be the Steroid Era thinking of home runs must be hit to win. It would be about reducing strike outs, and putting the ball in play, hard. 

   Let's go division by division. In the NL west, the Dodgers are going to win. The Giants need to figure out their identity (their pitching) and the Padres just clumsily through together some sluggers. The Diamondbacks are set back by their one-man offense, and the Rockies can't win because of their stadium, which is so high it makes hitting impossible. 

    The NL Central will once again belong to the Cardinals, though the Pirates will fade, and the Cubs will at one point find themselves ahead. This is because The Cubs have better pitching than the Cards, and hitting. However, the Redbirds have way more experience, and they know how to win consistently. 

    The NL East will not be the Mets again. While they may have better pitching, they no longer have the offensive anchors of Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes. The Nationals don't have as good pitching, but it's solid enough to get by, and MVP Bryce Harper can anchor and offense as good as anybody. 

   The AL West will be within the Angels or the Astros. The Astros are a good young team who can deal with injury, and the Angels are anchored by the best player in baseball, Mike Trout. 

    The AL Central belongs to the dynasty of the Royals. They have their core players for at least two more years, and everyone else in that division sucks. The Tigers are in rebuilding mode, the White Sox are losing players to injury all of the time, and depend on Chris Sale. The Indians can't keep a lead, and the Twins are too old, so they can't deal with injuries. 

   The AL East is the most uncertain, as everyone in the division is bad. So I used the process of elimination. It won't be the Orioles, they're losing too many of their core players to free agency. The Yankees have the same problems as the Twins, they're too susceptible to injury. The Blue Jays no longer have their pitching anchor, David Price, to support their pitching, the Rays don't have any offense, and the Red Sox are a mess of injuries, reliance on home runs, and lack of starting pitching. However, I'm reasonably sure that if the Red Sox can grab a starter this winter, then they're in a good place to win the division. 

   

Curveball vs Slider

  Today I feel like talking about something other than Major League Baseball, because the season is over. So today, I'm going to talk about the two most common breaking pitches, the curveball and the slider.
  As a practitioner of the curve, I know that the grip is fairly simple. You place your index and middle fingers along the vertical seam, lean towards your middle finger, and throw the ball so your middle finger is on top of the ball. Most curveball experience slight lateral movement and heavy downward movement. For people who didn't understand that, imagine the ball starts at the two on a clock. It breaks heavily, winding up somewhere between seven and eight. Other variations have different movement, some go from the one position to the eight, others go from  the two to the eight, but the most famous variation, literally called the 12-6, moves only from the twelve position to the six, with no sideways movement what so ever. There are certainly more variations of the curveball, and some could argue that is breaks more, but this is mostly because of who use which pitch. Starting pitchers mainly use the curve, and they tend to have better mechanics than relievers.
  The slider started off as the slurve, a variation of the curveball that had only a little downward action. Since then, the casual fan has found it difficult to distinguish between the two. One way to know is to see how fast it moves. Sliders are typically five miles per hour slower than a pitcher's fastball, sitting around 87 miles per hour. A curve is ten miles per hour slower. Think back to the clock. A slider will typically start at the three position and finish at around 8:30. Sliders are mainly used by relieves, as the grip (curveball grip with the fingers on the side) puts more strain on the arm (relievers throw less pitches). But those lines aren't final, as possibly the best starter in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, uses both the slider and the curve.
  When it comes down to it, which pitches you should use really depends on your mechanics. If your short arm the ball, and come around your shoulder, then you can really get sharp action on your slider. If you come straight over the top, stay long through the zone, and stay within yourself, the you should throw a curve. Your arm angle would simply move your fingers to the top and you'd throw a curve anyway. But none of that matters. The best off speed pitch, if you get it right, is the change up. It puts the least amount of strain on your arm, has an easy grip to use (circle with your index finger and your thumb) looks like a fastball, and is slower than either of the breaking pitches. If you need more proof, look at Pedro Martinez. The Hall of Famer's out pitch was a change up, and he dominated the American League during the Steroid Era, which, needless to say, is difficult. So learn either three. As long as you have a strong fastball to pitch your off speed off of, you'll do fine.

The Outcome of the World Series

   So for you baseball fans who don't have your heads stuck in the sand, the World Series has started. The Royals are winning 3-1, and it's the Royals' Edison Volquez againts the Mets' Matt Harvey. The aces previously met in game one, which the Royals won in fourteen innings. So now the big question; who's going to win tonight? If the Royals win, then they win the series. If the Mets win, then the series goes back to Kansas City for game 6.
   The Royals will win. I'm calling it. The Mets pitchers, particularly Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, and tonight starter, Matt Harvey, are all primarily fastball pitchers. The Royals have proved all series that they can hit a fastball, with the way they're set up. The Royals are contact hitters, even Eric Hosmer, their cleanup hitter, is more of an RBI guy than a home run guy. They put the ball in play, and if last night's fiasco (Daniel Murphy error) has taught us anything, it's that if you put the ball in play, things will happen. This is why the Mets were able to breeze through the Cubs and the Dodgers. The Cubs primarily rely on their pitching, home runs, and doubles. Their unpredictable, once they get men on base. And the Dodgers need to wait for a home run. I love the Dodgers, but they're kind of messed up right now.
    Remember a couple of posts ago when I said the Blue Jays would win the World Series. Well, I didn't factor in the Mets. The Mets' pitching would be perfect for the Blue Jays, who are even worse about waiting for the dinger than the Dodgers.
   I can't see into the future, but I can guess that the Royals will win tonight. They are the best team in the American League, but nobody payed them any attention because they were so far ahead of the Central from the beginning. But they will win tonight.