Sunday, December 6, 2015

The Most Overpayed Free Agent

 The winter is always exciting for true baseball fans. You get to watch rumors of your team talking to players and either sign them, or fall back to the next best thing. However, you can still sign the number one free agent on the market and fail. That's exactly what the Arizona Diamondbacks did, last Friday, when they picked up the top name of the 2015 off season, Zack Greinke. Greinke, among other things, (should've won the Cy Young) had a remarkable year, helping the Dodgers yet again win the National League West, and headed into this off season as the man to get. But can you spend too much on such a top-of-the-line-name? (Yes, the answer is yes)
 Another top of the line free agent pitcher that was signed within the past two weeks was David Price. Price is making 217 million over the next seven years, with an opt out clause after three years. Zack Greinke is making 206.5 million over the next six years, with 60 million of it being deferred. (payed over time once the contract is over) Another thing to consider is that Price is two years younger than Greinke, which means that Arizona will be paying 27 million a year when Greinke is 38! With pitching free agents, you generally are paying them for the first four years, then whatever you get after that is extra, but you can't rely on them to be a number one, much less the guy you're paying 27 million to to go toe to toe with the greatest young arms of the generation. Not only that, but Arizona is in a delicate position right now. They're so-so, having a couple of really good players, but not really having enough chemistry or pitching to make a serious run. Now they've shot themselves on the foot by picking up Greinke. Don't get me wrong, Greinke's probably among the top three pitchers in baseball, but with that team, you don't get big name stars, especially for that much. You make trades and conserve your money, to make a good team. But the DBacks are in a rough hole now, and they're going to have to think really smartly to dig their way out.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

2016 Predictions

  2015 was an exciting year. There were some pretty extreme moments in it. The most memorable moment for me was Jose Bautista's bat flip in Game 5 of the ALDS, when he all but sent the Jays to the LCS with a three run home run. But things will be different in 2016. The various teams around baseball have seen the success of the Royals, and will try to mimic them. Gone will be the Steroid Era thinking of home runs must be hit to win. It would be about reducing strike outs, and putting the ball in play, hard. 
   Let's go division by division. In the NL west, the Dodgers are going to win. The Giants need to figure out their identity (their pitching) and the Padres just clumsily through together some sluggers. The Diamondbacks are set back by their one-man offense, and the Rockies can't win because of their stadium, which is so high it makes hitting impossible. 
    The NL Central will once again belong to the Cardinals, though the Pirates will fade, and the Cubs will at one point find themselves ahead. This is because The Cubs have better pitching than the Cards, and hitting. However, the Redbirds have way more experience, and they know how to win consistently. 
    The NL East will not be the Mets again. While they may have better pitching, they no longer have the offensive anchors of Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes. The Nationals don't have as good pitching, but it's solid enough to get by, and MVP Bryce Harper can anchor and offense as good as anybody. 
   The AL West will be within the Angels or the Astros. The Astros are a good young team who can deal with injury, and the Angels are anchored by the best player in baseball, Mike Trout. 
    The AL Central belongs to the dynasty of the Royals. They have their core players for at least two more years, and everyone else in that division sucks. The Tigers are in rebuilding mode, the White Sox are losing players to injury all of the time, and depend on Chris Sale. The Indians can't keep a lead, and the Twins are too old, so they can't deal with injuries. 
   The AL East is the most uncertain, as everyone in the division is bad. So I used the process of elimination. It won't be the Orioles, they're losing too many of their core players to free agency. The Yankees have the same problems as the Twins, they're too susceptible to injury. The Blue Jays no longer have their pitching anchor, David Price, to support their pitching, the Rays don't have any offense, and the Red Sox are a mess of injuries, reliance on home runs, and lack of starting pitching. However, I'm reasonably sure that if the Red Sox can grab a starter this winter, then they're in a good place to win the division. 
   

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Curveball vs Slider

  Today I feel like talking about something other than Major League Baseball, because the season is over. So today, I'm going to talk about the two most common breaking pitches, the curveball and the slider.
  As a practitioner of the curve, I know that the grip is fairly simple. You place your index and middle fingers along the vertical seam, lean towards your middle finger, and throw the ball so your middle finger is on top of the ball. Most curveball experience slight lateral movement and heavy downward movement. For people who didn't understand that, imagine the ball starts at the two on a clock. It breaks heavily, winding up somewhere between seven and eight. Other variations have different movement, some go from the one position to the eight, others go from  the two to the eight, but the most famous variation, literally called the 12-6, moves only from the twelve position to the six, with no sideways movement what so ever. There are certainly more variations of the curveball, and some could argue that is breaks more, but this is mostly because of who use which pitch. Starting pitchers mainly use the curve, and they tend to have better mechanics than relievers.
  The slider started off as the slurve, a variation of the curveball that had only a little downward action. Since then, the casual fan has found it difficult to distinguish between the two. One way to know is to see how fast it moves. Sliders are typically five miles per hour slower than a pitcher's fastball, sitting around 87 miles per hour. A curve is ten miles per hour slower. Think back to the clock. A slider will typically start at the three position and finish at around 8:30. Sliders are mainly used by relieves, as the grip (curveball grip with the fingers on the side) puts more strain on the arm (relievers throw less pitches). But those lines aren't final, as possibly the best starter in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, uses both the slider and the curve.
  When it comes down to it, which pitches you should use really depends on your mechanics. If your short arm the ball, and come around your shoulder, then you can really get sharp action on your slider. If you come straight over the top, stay long through the zone, and stay within yourself, the you should throw a curve. Your arm angle would simply move your fingers to the top and you'd throw a curve anyway. But none of that matters. The best off speed pitch, if you get it right, is the change up. It puts the least amount of strain on your arm, has an easy grip to use (circle with your index finger and your thumb) looks like a fastball, and is slower than either of the breaking pitches. If you need more proof, look at Pedro Martinez. The Hall of Famer's out pitch was a change up, and he dominated the American League during the Steroid Era, which, needless to say, is difficult. So learn either three. As long as you have a strong fastball to pitch your off speed off of, you'll do fine.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

The Outcome of the World Series

   So for you baseball fans who don't have your heads stuck in the sand, the World Series has started. The Royals are winning 3-1, and it's the Royals' Edison Volquez againts the Mets' Matt Harvey. The aces previously met in game one, which the Royals won in fourteen innings. So now the big question; who's going to win tonight? If the Royals win, then they win the series. If the Mets win, then the series goes back to Kansas City for game 6.
   The Royals will win. I'm calling it. The Mets pitchers, particularly Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, and tonight starter, Matt Harvey, are all primarily fastball pitchers. The Royals have proved all series that they can hit a fastball, with the way they're set up. The Royals are contact hitters, even Eric Hosmer, their cleanup hitter, is more of an RBI guy than a home run guy. They put the ball in play, and if last night's fiasco (Daniel Murphy error) has taught us anything, it's that if you put the ball in play, things will happen. This is why the Mets were able to breeze through the Cubs and the Dodgers. The Cubs primarily rely on their pitching, home runs, and doubles. Their unpredictable, once they get men on base. And the Dodgers need to wait for a home run. I love the Dodgers, but they're kind of messed up right now.
    Remember a couple of posts ago when I said the Blue Jays would win the World Series. Well, I didn't factor in the Mets. The Mets' pitching would be perfect for the Blue Jays, who are even worse about waiting for the dinger than the Dodgers.
   I can't see into the future, but I can guess that the Royals will win tonight. They are the best team in the American League, but nobody payed them any attention because they were so far ahead of the Central from the beginning. But they will win tonight.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

The Top Five World Series Games of all Time

   I know, normally I talk about the Major Leagues as of 2015. But with the World Series approaching, I thought it would be fun to remember all of the greatest individual contests of the Fall Classic. So, without further ado:
                                      THE TOP FIVE WORLD SERIES GAMES
 5. Game Five, 1956
   The team with the most championships than any team in sports, the Yankees, had lost for the first time, to the Dodgers. Don Larson, the equivalent of a number five starter, was handed the ball in game five. In an unbelievable turn of events, Larson went on to throw a perfect game, the only one in postseason history.

4. Game Seven, 1960
  Another underdog, the Pirates, was again facing the Yankees. Despite being outscored more than 2-1 in games 1-6, the Bucks were still in it. In the bottom of the ninth, tied 9-9, Bill Mazeroski, hit a walk off home run, one of two all time to end a World Series.

3. Game Seven, 1991
  Jack Morris, on the tail end of his career, was still the guy on the Twins. For the Braves, John Smoltz, who idolized Morris, was starting. Through eight, the game was scoreless, but the Braves had the bases loaded, but Morris stayed out there, and got his double play. Smoltz came out after eight, but Morris pitched all ten innings, and the Twins wound up winning 1-0.

2. Game Six, 2011
  The Cardinals, in all their 21st century winning glory, were about to lose to the Rangers, who hadn't won a Fall Classic in franchise history. Down to their last strike, David Freese, the series MVP, hit a double the other way to tie the game up again. One inning later, down to their last strike, Lance Berkman hit a single to again tie it up again. Another inning later, David Freese hit a walk off round tripper to end it.

1. Game 6, 1975
 The best game from what is often considered the best World Series, this game featured the cursed Red Sox. The Reds gained an early advantage from Hall of Famer Joe Morgan. But the Sox came roaring back with a game tying, three run jack by Bernie Carpoll. In the twelfth, Hall of Famer led off with a walk off dinger, giving the Red Sox the game. Though the Red Sox officially lost, many true fans believe that the Red Sox won the World Series, 3 games to 4.  

Sunday, October 18, 2015

The Cubs in the Postseason - Did Back to the Future Know Something We Didn't?

    So you're asking, what does Back to the Future have to do with baseball? Well, this year is the thirtieth anniversary of the release of the movie, and in it, there was a brief scene where they showed the Cubs, who haven't won the World Series since 1908, winning it all. Weird, right? The Cubs haven't exactly been flirting with the postseason much since 1985, and yet, this postseason, the Cubs are in the NLCS for the first time since 2003, when they were one out away when a fan swooped in and knocked the ball away from Moises Alou, ruining the Cubs chance to go to the World Series for the first time since 1948.
    Now, though, the Cubs have a very good chance against the Mets, having more experienced pitching, with a staff of aces John Lester, Jason Hammel, and future NL Cy Young Jake Arrieta (for reasons why Arrieta is the Cy Young, see my last post). Also, despite the Mets having Yoenis Cespedes, David Wright, and surging Daniel Murphy, the Cubs can easily swing with the Mets, boasting Anthony Rizzo, NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant, and Starlin Castro. Also, Joe Madden, the manger who revitalized the Cubs, is proving his initiative at the helm of the North-Siders. Squeezes, delayed steals and Pepperdine plays (runners in first and third, runner on third steals, hitter push bunts) are being seen commonly.
   If the Cubs beat the Mets, than they will come face to face with the young-gun Royals, who have an outstanding bullpen, or the powerhouse Blue Jays, who, if they get there, will win the World Series (see my previous post). All in all, everybody will be satisfied.  All of the teams in the playoffs are relatively new to it, and nobody left has won since 1993.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Arrieta's Dominance: Enough to Beat out Zack Greinke for the Cy Young?

   A month ago, Zack Greinke was the obvious NL Cy Young. That has quite obviously changed. As much as I don't want to admit it, being a Dodgers fan, but Jake Arrieta's run of brilliance has out shined Greinke's dominant year. Arrieta, five days ago pitching a shutout in the NL wild card game to boost the upstart underdog Cubs into the official postseason, worked his way up from the three starter in the beginning of the year, to the number two starter, past John Lester, who the Cubs specifically went out and picked up as the big free agent signing of the off season to be their ace. But Arrieta didn't stop there. He kept winning, going 5-0 in his last six starts, in his last 46 innings, giving up only 22 hits. Arrieta finished 2015 first in wins (22), and second in ERA, (1.77) a whole half a run lower than Clayton Kershaw, who was in third.
    But enough about stats. Stats are for uptight broadcasters trying to sound smart and superior in baseball to the casual fan, when in reality they either want to give a desperate hope to a team that they know is done but would be good for the ratings if they stayed won, or when they have nothing to talk about. Two blogs ago, I made a case for Yoenis Cespedes being the MVP of the NL even though he didn't have nearly as good a year as Bryce Harper. But he was more valuable, sparking the Mets' offense and boosting them over the Nationals. Cespedes was more valuable to the Mets. The same, or reverse is true for Arrieta. John Lester had a good year, bordering on great, but nowhere near the six year $155 million ace the Cubs were looking for. Then Arrieta stepped up, picking the Cubs' pitching staff up from the bottom and somehow holding it all together until the playoffs. Arrieta was the Cubs' pitching, at least at the end of the year.
    Now look at Zack Greinke. He has the numbers, dominance, everything, but he's not even the ace of his own staff. Kershaw is. Greinke can be as good as it gets, but as long as he isn't the guy on his team, he can never beat out someone as good as Arrieta.   

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Blue Jays Incredible Run

   The Toronto Blue Jays, like all the AL division winners, have come out of nowhere. After starting the year with a 12-15 April, fourth in the AL East, the Jays have fought back and are now the best team in all of the American League. Sitting a cool 93-68, the Blue Jays clinched on Wednesday, September 30. This is mainly due to their incredible offense, which boasts many well known all-stars such as Troy Tulowitzki, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and probable MVP Josh Donaldson. Along with speedster Kevin Pillar, the Jays managed to knock out the powerful Yankees and even fly ahead of the Royals, who won the pennant last year.
   All this is well and good, but the time where the Blue Jays beat everyone in baseball was at the trade deadline. The Jays got all-star and ace David Price, filling in the once thought weakness of their pitching. Then they got Troy Tulowitzki, the best shortstop in baseball, and a good lead off man. However, Tulo has been hurt, but Josh Donaldson, the hottest hitter in baseball, has more than stepped up in his place. Donaldson has 182 hits, 122 runs, 123 RBI's, 41 home runs, 73 walks, and a .298 batting average. Donaldson and former home run champion Jose Bautista both have over 100 runs and RBI's.
   Now wait. You can have a good offense, but you won't get anywhere in the postseason without pitching. This used to be in question. I mean, Mark Buehrle is a great pitcher, but with a 3.82 ERA, it's not the kind of dominance you expect from an ace. But look at David Price. Price was picked up at the deadline, and since has posted 2.3 ERA with an incredible 9-1 record. On top of that, closer Roberto Osuna has been great. With 20 saves and a 2.58 ERA, it's kind of hard to argue with the hard throwing right hander.
  Those are simply the numbers. If you look at the Blue Jays, you see that they never look like they're out of a game. They keep playing. And they win. I think they'll win the World Series. Mark my words.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

NL MVP: Harper or Cespedes?

   I was there the day Bryce Harper got his first major league hit. I saw the inside out swing, the way he kept his hands in, and thought to myself, wow. But I never imagined this. Harper has gone on a tear this year, hitting an incredible .339! On top of that, he's leading the National League in home runs (41), runs (117), and batting average (.339), and leading baseball in on base percentage (.470), slugging percentage (.663), and on base plus slugging (1.133). Harper has put the National's offense on his back and boosted them from last to second place. However, as impressive as it is, Harper shouldn't be the MVP. Most Valuable Player. There is another candidate, who isn't having as good a season as Harper, is still more valuable.
    Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets outfielder, has kick started an otherwise desolate offense, boosting the Mets, who don't have as good pitching as Harper's Nationals, above them into first place. In the two months that Cespedes has been a Met, he has hit .294, with 17 home runs and 44 RBI's. Although Cespedes' stats aren't as good as Harper's, you have to think of how valuable Cespedes is to the Mets. In May and June, the Mets were 13-15, and 12-15. After Cespedes became a Met, in August and September, the Mets 20-8, and 15-9 (September's not over yet).
    You can make a case for either of the two stars. All that matters is what you think. I know what I think. Do you?

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Kershaw vs. Greinke

     Until July, Zack Greinke was the ace of the Dodgers, and the clear Cy Young winner.

     After 2014's unheard of numbers, everybody expected big things out of the left handed ace of the Dodgers known as Clayton Kershaw. However, things did not go as planned in the early weeks of the season for Kershaw. In April he had an ERA of 3.73, and May (3.97 ERA) he settled down in June, posting a 2.16 ERA in 42.1 innings pitched, and then having a major month of July, with an incredible 0.27 ERA in 33 innings. On top of that, Kershaw has the 2015 strikeout lead, with an incredible 11.42 k/9. Kershaw pitches  tonight, gunning for his 15th win, which would put him in contention for the Cy Young award, which would be his third in a row. 
     1.63. 1.63! An incredible ERA. Zack Greinke may not strike out as many people as his team mate Clayton Kershaw, but he allows less runs than him. Zack Greinke was the clear cut Cy Young for most of the year, until a bad outing in June brought his ERA up from the 1.3's to the 1.6's. Regardless, Greinke has one of the best records in baseball, 18-3, all while consistently going 7 or 8 innings, rarely giving up more than one run.
    So the question is, who's the Cy Young? From a consistency, wins, and ERA standpoint, you have to give to Greinke. But if you look at the past three months, ever since June, Kershaw has had an ERA of under 1.2, along with the strikeout lead. From a dominance standpoint, you have to give it to Kershaw. Who do you think should be the Cy Young. I certainly know who I think it should be.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Donaldson for MVP

   This past offseason, the now laughable trade of Josh Donaldson being sent to Toronto for Brett Lawrie , Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Franklyn Barreto getting moved to the A's seamed reasonable for Billy Beane. In hindsight, this was not the smartest of moves, as Donaldson's 108 runs and 115 RBI's spot him number one in baseball... and an MVP candidate. Donaldson, along with other new additions such as David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, and returning stars Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, have taken the Blue Jays from third place to first place.
   Donaldson is starting to be seen as the leading AL MVP Candidate, for good reason. Aside from leading baseball in runs and RBI’s, he third in the American League in home runs, fourth in hits, second in slugging, and first in total bases. The only player who boasts similar numbers is Nolan Arenado, who is on the last place Colorado Rockies in the National League. While some people would argue that Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels) has provided more support for an otherwise half formed Angels lineup (Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun provide much needed support), if the Angels fail to make the playoffs, then Trout will not be a valuable as Donaldson in making a playoff run at the World Series. Think about that.